Yellowhammer

Yellowhammer

The document is only 5 pages long – and one paragraph has been blanked out. Definitely worth a read. I am quoting from the document here. Where I give my own opinion, I say so.

Page 2:

Comment: We’ve discovered that Britain is an island. And this makes things tricky.

Moving goods and people may be subject to delays: there will be a knock-on effect if goods are held up in either the UK or French Channel ports. The delay could be 2 and ½ days for a haulier passing through an English or French Channel Port.

Question: If the haulier is shifting perishable goods – any idea where they can be dumped if the goods ‘perish’ while they’re in the queue?

‘Travellers (using airports and ferries) may decide to use alternative routes to complete their journey.’ Question: And what exactly would these be?

Energy prices will rise.

Comment: no real explanation of why.

‘Some participants (meaning suppliers) could exit the market (go bust?).

Question: What does that mean for the rest of us?  

Page 3:

There will be an effect on the supply of medicines and medical supplies. Comment: There’s no description of what the effect will be, but it’s stated that some meds can’t be on the road for too long and some need temperature control.

There’s a danger of more outbreaks of disease among animals if vet supplies are held up. That means a problem with the knock-on effect of these diseases on the human population.

Some foods will be in short supply. There’s a danger of panic buying, in the run-up to Xmas especially.

There may be a shortage of chemicals to treat water supplies but water companies have been stock-piling these.

There may be problems with cross-border financial services.

Law enforcement data and information-sharing between the UK and the EU will be affected.

The picture for UK nationals living in the EU is confused. There will be increased demand for assistance from UK nationals living in the EU. This will put embassies and consulates under pressure. Comment: No mention of what extra staff will be needed to deal with the pressure.

Page 4:

Pensions should be okay.

Healthcare for UK citizens living in the EU ends on 31 October. UK citizens travelling, working, studying  or living in EU countries need to make their own arrangements for healthcare. Arrangements depend on the country they are in. Emergency treatment may be available, but UK citizens may be billed after the event. ‘A minority could face substantial costs.’

Gibraltar will be a mess financially and in terms of food and other supplies.

There will be civil unrest in the UK.

There will be disruption to fuel supplies.

The poorest will be worst affected by price hikes in food and fuel.  

There’s a paragraph blanked out here.

Page 5:

This is about Ireland. Comment: You need to read the comments about Northern Ireland for yourself. Let’s just say there will be an effect on jobs, cross-border food supplies and a return to the old smuggling habit. There will be protests and civil unrest in Northern Ireland. Dissident groups will be more active.

There will be problems with fishing across the UK: illegal fishing by EU trawlers, illegal migration, blockading of ports, etc. The UK doesn’t have the staff to control this.  

                                

Final comment: This is the kind of stuff I used to be asked to summarise for the bosses when I worked in a local council in Scotland.

It looks to me as if the most problematic area is going to be the movement of goods and people: if you live on an island (or more than a few) you need to have some detailed plans to ensure the food and energy supplies in an emergency.

There’s a lack of detail here. And the civil servants who wrote this paper only have – what? – 7 weeks to pull it all together. Because it won’t be the politicians what will have to do that…and it won’t be the politicians who suffer when problems arise.

And yet again, I find myself asking: why is this happening?